Liberals' courage, PQ windfall

Unpopular moves will help the opposition win favour, plus hand it a better financial situation if it wins the next election

Budget 2011-2012 - mars 2011

Oppositions oppose. That's why opposition parties always find something to criticize in the government's annual budget.
But whatever the opposition parties said in public Thursday about Finance Minister Raymond Bachand's latest budget, they must have been cheering privately.
And the party that had the most to cheer about is the one must likely to replace the Liberals in power in the next general elections, the official opposition Parti Québécois.
The budget helps the PQ in two ways.
In the short term, it will benefit the PQ along with the other opposition parties by keeping the Liberals unpopular until the next elections and helping to mobilize students in particular against them.
Already, the government's satisfaction rating is at a historically low 17 per cent.
And in the medium term, if the PQ does win those elections, it will come into office with the government's finances in better shape thanks to unpopular but necessary actions that will already have been taken by the Liberals.
It took courage for the Charest government to arouse the ire of students by increasing tuition fees, as part of a plan to address the underfunding of the province's universities.
Starting in 2012, fees will increase by $325 a year for five years, so that in 2016, they will be $1,600 a year higher than they are now.
And in last year's budget, the government had launched a four-year austerity program by announcing a new health "contribution" and increases in the sales and gasoline taxes, user fees and hydro rates, some of which have yet to come into effect.
This year, while spending on health, education and support for seniors will increase, the budgets of some other departments, such as public safety and environment, have been cut.
And with the next elections due by the end of 2013, the government still has to identify further spending cuts, tax and fee increases, or both, in the next two years - $300 million next year, and $1 billion the year after that.
This is so that, with the additional help of such bookkeeping magic tricks as making spending disappear from the budget and re-appear off the books in non-budgetary "funds," the Liberals can restore at least the appearance of a balanced budget by 2013-14.
That wouldn't solve the government's long-term financial problems. But it would at least leave a nice housewarming gift for an incoming PQ government. For Premier Jean Charest's determination to have Quebec be first to show a balanced budget, the PQ can be thankful.
As a bonus, Bachand even provided some fresh ammunition for the PQ's allies in Ottawa, the Bloc Québécois, for use in the debate on next week's federal budget and a possible federal election campaign.
Usually, the Quebec finance minister waits to present his budget until after his federal counterpart has presented his. But this year, Bachand went first, saying he didn't want his budget to get lost in the "political whirlwind" that would follow the federal one.
And one of the things that might have got lost is a booklet accompanying the budget documents "updating" Quebec's financial grievances against the Harper government.
The booklet elaborated upon Bachand's complaint in his budget speech that the Harper government has been "unfair" to Quebec in not accepting his proposal on the harmonization of the federal goods and services tax and the Quebec sales tax.
It said Quebec has already harmonized its sales tax with the GST, but unlike the other provinces that have done so, has not received any financial compensation from Ottawa. Quebec is claiming $2.2 billion in compensation.
Bachand has already said he doesn't expect a final agreement to be concluded before several months.
But he said Thursday the Charest government "will continue to defend the interests of Quebecers."
The implication was that the government might intervene in the next federal election campaign against the Conservatives, as it did in the last one on the issue of culture funding.
dmacpherson@montrealgazette.com
Twitter: rCz MacphersonGaz


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