How a pssh-ing match turned into an election

2 mai 2011 - Harper majoritaire


This week, a debate broke out among Quebec commentators over whether the province's media, in trying to appeal to women, have become too "ladyfied."
Obviously, ladyfication is not a problem in politics, where we are about to spend $300 million on a probably inconclusive federal general election as the result of a pissing contest.
That became apparent on Tuesday. Throughout this Parliament, the NDP had been taunting the Liberals for propping up the Conservative minority government. Pssh!

But then the Liberals put the NDP on the spot by announcing first, even before they saw Finance Minister Jim Flaherty's latest budget, that they would vote against it. Pssh!
Then Flaherty issued a dare to the New Democrats by tossing them a much smaller bone in the budget than they had demanded. Pssh!
Feeling insulted, his fitness for five weeks of campaigning across Canada being questioned (much was made of his reading his response to the budget from a lectern, for possible support), NDP leader Jack Layton answered on the fly - and from his fly.
Without consulting his caucus first, as the NDP had said he would, Layton announced that his party would not support the budget without changes. Pssh!
And Flaherty responded that there would be none. Pssh!
This is how some wars start. And this one will probably not result in even a moral victory for the NDP.
The latest seat projections based on the polls suggest that Layton's party will lose at least a few seats. And if NDP sympathizers turn to the Liberals to deny the Conservatives a majority, it would lose more.
At this point, the two most probable outcomes of Layton's action are first, another Conservative minority government in another stalemated House of Commons, and second, a Conservative majority with four years to impose its agenda.
Maybe Layton just wanted to get the election over with so the party could choose a new leader, most likely Thomas Mulcair.
And maybe the Liberals had a similar reason for deciding to vote against the budget even before seeing it. The sooner Michael Ignatieff loses an election, the sooner he can return to Harvard, and the sooner the Liberal Party can replace one imitation Pierre Trudeau with another, who even has the family name of the original, and some of the charisma.
If Justin Trudeau holds his seat and replaces Ignatieff after the election, and Mulcair holds his and replaces Layton, then three of the party leaders in the next Parliament would be Quebecers, including whoever will be leading the Bloc Québécois.
For 63-year-old Gilles Duceppe, this could be the last federal general election as leader of the Bloc - one way or another. He is the most obvious candidate to become the next leader of the Parti Québécois after the election, should Pauline Marois receive an unsatisfactory vote of confidence at the PQ convention in three weeks. And the federal campaign will provide Duceppe with daily visibility until the PQ vote.
Duceppe's party is also the one most likely to make gains in Quebec, mostly in the Quebec City region at the expense of the Conservatives over the latter's refusal to provide federal funding for the "Labeaumodrome" arena.
But the Conservatives hope to offset losses in Quebec City with a breakthrough in western Montreal.
In particular, they're counting on the name recognition of Larry Smith, former Alouettes president (and Gazette publisher), in Lac-Saint-Louis, and support for the Harper government's pro-Israel stance from Jewish voters in Pierre Trudeau's former riding of Mount Royal.
So in this election, there will be more competition than usual for the votes of some non-francophone Quebecers. They should enjoy the attention while it lasts.


dmacpherson@ montrealgazette.com
Twitter: @MacphersonGaz


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