The Quebec independence question has become the last refuge of Philippe Couillard.

It was the beleaguered Liberal premier’s fallback position again last week, as he retreated from his latest ill-considered decision. That was to defend the recruitment of a former Coalition Avenir Québec researcher who had admitted copying confidential party files without authorization while seeking a job with Liberal minister Dominique Anglade.

When reporters questioned Couillard about it, he changed the subject, saying CAQ staffers have been defecting to his party because of the Coalition’s recent foray into identity politics.

“But also because it was said to them initially that federalists would be very happy at the CAQ. Well, federalists are not happy at the CAQ.”

Fear of another referendum on independence explains why the federalist Liberals have held onto first place in the polls, even with the government’s satisfaction rating mired at around 30 per cent.

Even some Liberal voters are dissatisfied with the government. In the latest Léger survey, this soft support represents 27 per cent of the Liberal vote.

Since 1970, no Quebec majority government has failed to win a second term. But midway through the first term of the Couillard government, Liberal members of the National Assembly appear to be anything but confident.

On Saturday, La Presse reported that one long-time Liberal official said he had never seen so much dissatisfaction among the party’s MNAs.

The continued poor performance of the government in general and Couillard in particular are the main reason. But maybe Liberal MNAs are also nervous because they’ve been keeping an eye on the Parti Québécois leadership campaign.

The PQ election is crucial to all parties because it could determine whether Quebec politics remain polarized on the referendum question, which represents the Liberals’ best and perhaps last hope of winning re-election.

And recently, the momentum in the PQ campaign has appeared to be with the candidate who represents the strongest threat to the Liberals’ continued dominance.

That’s not because Jean-François Lisée has such appeal to the voters. But the election of Lisée as PQ leader next month could immediately eliminate even the possibility of a referendum as a major issue in the next general election.

His immediate priority as leader would be to oust the Liberals. To that end, the central plank in his platform is a commitment not to hold a referendum in the first term of a Lisée government elected in 2018.

Many PQ members are probably receptive to Lisée’s idea. Support for independence has fallen to 39 per cent in the latest Léger poll. And even among those who still support it, only 45 per cent are in favour of an early referendum.

Independence strategy is the issue that most clearly differentiates the PQ leadership candidates. And while the theatrics in the leadership debate on Sunday inevitably got most of the media attention, the audience reaction shows that independence strategy is also the issue that most interests party members.

During the debate, Lisée effectively attacked consensus frontrunner Alexandre Cloutier’s proposal to put off a decision on whether to hold a referendum until six or eight months before the next election, and then leave it up to the party’s governing council.

As Lisée pointed out, this could plunge the party into a crisis just before the election, and force Cloutier to defend a position in the general election with which he disagreed.

Lisée would settle the issue immediately, in the leadership election, leaving two years for the party to re-unite and prepare for the general election.

One analyst, based on campaign contributions and endorsements as well as the polls, boldly gave Cloutier a 95-per-cent chance of winning the leadership.

But that was on Friday, before the crucial, final four weeks of the campaign, which will include several more debates. And as Sunday’s debate showed, Cloutier’s position on independence strategy is vulnerable, and Lisée is a strong attacker.