Premier Jean Charest has until December 2013 to call the next general election. The reasoning, however, is that he’d like the election to be held before the fall hearings of the Charbonneau inquiry into public-works contracts, whose disclosures might be politically damaging to his Liberal Party.
Liberals were told last fall to prepare for a possible spring election, and riding associations have been holding nominating meetings.
For the vote to be held before summer, Charest would have to call it by May 16. So when the Liberals scheduled a meeting of their general council for May 4 to 6, the gathering of hundreds of party members from across the province was seen as a possible launching pad into a spring campaign.
Never mind that the council was due to meet this spring anyway.
And if Charest heeds one of his strategic advisers, he won’t call a spring election.
In a 2005 appearance on the Radio-Canada talk show Tout le monde en parle, Charest revealed that he occasionally consults Sun Tzu’s The Art of War, an ancient Chinese classic on military strategy.
So what advice does Sun Tzu have for Gen. Charest in his present situation?
“Those who know when to fight and when not to fight are victorious.”
As premier, Charest gets to choose the election date, and he has another 20 months in which to decide when to fight.
“A victorious army first wins and then seeks battle; a defeated army first battles and then seeks victory,” Sun Tzu says.
So until Charest’s time runs out in December 2013, he should call the election only when he’s already sure of winning, not count on coming from behind during the campaign.
Charest has a reputation as a gifted campaigner, but he acquired it while he was still in opposition. In politics, it’s easier to attack than to defend. In the two general elections so far in which he has been the incumbent leader, having to defend the record of his outgoing government, he has not campaigned especially effectively.
When Charest called the last election, in 2008, the Liberals appeared to be shoo-ins, with a satisfaction rating around 60 per cent. But on voting day they won only a slim seven-seat majority in the National Assembly.
“If you are fewer, then keep away if you are able,” Sun Tzu says.
Currently, Liberal supporters appear to be vastly outnumbered among the French-speaking voters who control most ridings. A mid-March CROP-La Presse poll gave the Liberals only 19 per cent of the francophone vote. That placed them a distant third, behind the Parti Québécois at 41 per cent and François Legault’s Coalition Avenir Québec at 29 per cent.
Not only that, but Liberal support had been stuck at about the same low level for six months. “With these numbers,” CROP vice-president Youri Rivest commented to La Presse, “there won’t be elections in the short term.”
And, he added, “there’s a reflection to do in the summer” – referring to Charest’s continued leadership of the Liberal Party.
Last week, a Canada-wide poll by Angus Reid Public Opinion suggested that Charest continues to have the lowest approval rating among the premiers in their respective provinces, at only 27 per cent. Charest had also been last in earlier rankings by Reid, with approval ratings of 26 per cent last December and 30 per cent last August.
Maybe Charest or his party will be consulting The Art of War this summer to see whether Sun Tzu has any advice on when a general should be replaced.
dmacpherson FUJ montrealgazette.com
Twitter: FUJ MacphersonGaz