Crise financière mondiale

Revue de presse 7 août 2011

'Is this the end of American empire? It's tempting to answer 'Yes'

Chronique de Richard Le Hir

Revue de presse produite avec l'aimable collaboration de Richard Le Hir
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La BCE en dernier rempart contre la frénésie des marchés
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Gordon Brown: Europe is still burying its head in the sand
_ This latest market crisis was predictable. Deeper economic, social and political agonies will follow as long as the eurozone avoids the big issues
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Brown blames US and Europe for 'throwing away' recovery
Former prime minister mounts an extraordinary attack on world leaders for mishandling economic crisis and risking 'a decade of joblessness'

Mr Brown's remarkable intervention will reinforce comparisons between the flurry of activity surrounding his efforts to rescue the global economy in 2008, with the apparent reluctance of European leaders and finance ministers to curtail their holidays to deal with the crisis.
In a demolition of the political response to the latest global economic meltdown, Mr Brown warns: "Economic necessity was sacrificed to what was politically expedient." Dithering means "the next crisis gets ever closer and threatens even more danger", Mr Brown writes, before setting out his "global plan" for fixing the crisis which, if ignored, he warns will trigger "the most punishing of future outcomes".
Mr Brown claims the "lethal combination" of a fiscal crisis, a banking crisis and low growth "threatens a tragic roll call ... of millions of European citizens unnecessarily condemned to unemployment and a wasted decade"
"No number of weekend phone calls can solve what is a financial, macroeconomic and fiscal crisis rolled into one, now needs a radical restructuring of both Europe's banks and the euro, and will almost certainly require G2O and IMF intervention."



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If the US can't bail out the world, then who do we turn to? Mars?
So here we are. The debt endgame. The reckoning. The pain postponed is about be endured.
The world's three largest economic blocs – the US, the eurozone and Japan – have one thing in common. No, two things in common. First that their debts are unsustainable long term. Second, that their political systems are incapable of dealing with them. Governments have run out of road to bail out stricken banks and economies, and with that goes their ability to protect our savings and our livelihoods. And if the US can't bail out the rest of the world, whom do we turn to? Mars? In the circumstances, some degree of panic is understandable, indeed rational.

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Muni Market Prepares for Lost AAA Ratings
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ECB acts to stem further eurozone havoc
The European Central Bank (ECB) was thrashing out an eleventh-hour deal last night, in an attempt to stop Italy and Spain from becoming the next victims of Europe's sovereign debt crisis.

German officials fear Europe may be unable to fund a rescue package for Italy, should it be needed by Rome. Concern is mounting in Berlin that Italy’s economy may be too big to be rescued by the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) German news magazine Der Spiegel reported on Sunday.
According to the German weekly, Italy’s financial needs are so great that a rescue package would most likely eclipse the capacity of the EFSF, even if it was tripled in size.
Italy’s is the world’s eighth-largest economy with a public debt of about €1.8 trillion equivalent to roughly 120pc of its national output.
The European Commission and France, along with a majority of eurozone countries, hoped last week that the ECB would intervene to buy Italian and Spanish bonds during the summer to fill the gap over August while negotiations on boosting the euro’s bail-out fund took place.
But Germany and the Netherlands remain concerned that if the ECB intervenes to buy up Italian and Spanish bond issues, worth €600bn (£523bn) a year, then the eurozone’s “enlarged and enhanced” EFSF will be committed in advance in the autumn.
Germany fears that if the ECB intervenes to buy Italian bonds then pressure to increase the size of the EFSF will become inexorable, pushing the size of the bail-out fund to over €1 trillion or even as high as €3 trillion.


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'Is this the end of American empire? It's tempting to answer 'Yes'
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Dollar to Be 'Discarded' by World: China Rating Agency
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Markets braced for mayhem as US credit downgraded for first time
_ China and Russia with trillions of US debt react furiously to the news that
_ America had lost its AAA credit rating
_ World stock markets are braced for another bloodbath when they open in Asia tonight and across Europe tomorrow

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US financials and emerging markets will collapse most tomorrow
_ If readers are not out of the markets after last week then it is probably not too late to sell everything, and we will be surprised if looking back in a month or two that is not also the right course of action with hindsight.
_ Hanging on while the world drops away can leave you dangling from the upended Titanic as it takes its last dramatic plunge.
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US Downgrade Likely to be Mixed Bag for Dollar: Analysts
_ Standard and Poor's downgrade of U.S.'s sovereign credit rating will likely lead to further weakening in the greenback over the medium-term, a number of analysts told CNBC over the weekend. But, they warned, the short-term effects are unclear.



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Israel wary after S&P downgrades U.S. debt rating
_ Central bank and Treasury fear that effects of the downgrade could batter exports, the main engine of Israel's economy. Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fischer is reportedly concerned that the crisis could push down the value of the dollar.
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In this grave crisis, the world's leaders are terrifyingly out of their depth
The events of the past few days have been momentous: the eurozone sovereign debt crisis has escaped from the peripheries and spread to Italy and Spain; parts of the European banking system have frozen up; US Treasuries have been stripped of their AAA rating, which may be the beginning of a process that leads to the loss of the dollar’s vital status as the world’s reserve currency.
There have been warnings that we may be in for a repeat of the calamitous events of 2008. The truth, however, is that the situation is potentially much bleaker even than in those desperate days after the closure of Lehman Brothers. Back then, policy-makers had at their disposal a whole range of powerful tools to remedy the situation which are simply not available today.

An emergency telephone conference among the finance ministers of the G7 (membership: United States, Japan, Britain, Germany, France, Italy and Canada) has been convened. There was a time when this organisation – with its sublime pretence that financial powerhouses such as India, China and Brazil do not exist – counted for a great deal. This latest discussion feels as relevant as a Bourbon family get-together in the summer of 1789.

Wake up: the eurozone is very close to collapse. It will come as no surprise if some Italian and Spanish banks are forced to close their doors in the course of the next few weeks.
_ An economic firestorm is heading our way




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Crash Adds to Growing Doubts About Afghan War
By Yochi J. Dreazen - Filipino-American soldier Von Bolante scans the horizon as he mans a sentry point of Combat Outpost Sabari in Khost province in eastern Afghanistan on June 18.
The deadly crash of a U.S. helicopter in eastern Afghanistan earlier today will fuel the growing questions about the Obama administration’s handling of the long war—and the public’s nagging sense, evident in recent polls, that the conflict is simply not worth its enormous human and financial cost.



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Rating Cut of U.S. Debt Echoes the Nervousness of Global Markets
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Émeutes antipolicières à Londres
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Crise financière mondiale: les dirigeants du G7 sous pression
Les dirigeants du G7 étaient sous pression dimanche pour tenter de s'entendre sur une réponse concertée face à la crise de la dette en zone euro et la dégradation de la note des États-Unis, afin de parer à la menace d'un nouveau plongeon des marchés financiers lundi.
_ Premier indicateur de la température des marchés après le coup de tonnerre de la dégradation de la note de crédit des États-Unis, la Bourse de Tel-Aviv, l'une des rares à être ouverte le dimanche, a plongé de plus de 6% en séance.

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Our financial system has become a madhouse. We need radical change
_ As a new global crisis looms, and political paralysis worsens, genuinely bold solutions are required to overcome the malaise


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  • Archives de Vigile Répondre

    7 août 2011

    Le LEAP (http://www.leap2020.eu/) avait prévu depuis une année, à peu près, un écroulement du système financier international, au second semestre 2011. Ils devaient avoir une boule de crystal. La montée des bourses les 18 derniers mois n'est du qu'à l'action du Trésor américain et de la BCE ou d'autres (Banque du Japon) qui ont procédés à des injections massives de capitaux, capitaux qui ont été utilisés pour une spéculation qui n'a donné lieu à la création d'aucun emploi.
    Il faut rappeler que les déficits gouvernementaux sont surtout dus au soutien post-2007 d'établissements financiers insolvables (SocGen, BNP, BankOfAmerica, Citibank, UBS, etc...) pour un montant globalement de l'ordre de 6.000 milliards de $....au minimum.
    On tente maintenant de massacrer les systèmes sociaux (privatisations, réductions, etc) pour éviter de faire ce qui devrait être fait tout d'abord c'est à dire s'attaquer aux rentiers, au sens large, qui se sont gavés sur les marchés obligataires et également de démanteler les établissements financiers (Too Big To Fail...), stricte régulation des hedge-funds, etc...
    Le débat inflation vs déflation semble pour le moment réglé en faveur de déflationnistes.
    Conséquences pour le Québec ? Juste une liste de possibilitées, nous entrons dès le 8 Aout dans des territoires inconnus....
    Nous sommes en récession, même si ce n'est pas encore percu localement (écroulement des commandes aux USA, stagnation en Europe, voir l'indice ISM...)
    Quid pour la Caisse de Dépôts et ses positions (?).
    Rentabilité des caisses de retraite gérées par la Caisse et basé sur des modèles actuariels qui demandent des rendements de 5 à 6 %...
    Conséquences pour les secteurs d'exportations québécois (matières premières, aéronautique...) ?
    Pour le dollar canadien et le prix du baril de pétrole, il reste à voir si le dollar US va continuer à se déprécier ou si la baisse de la demande de carburant (toute relative d'ailleurs) sera suffisante pour faire baisser le dollar canadien...a voir...ce qui pourrait aider le secteur manufacturier, faire baisser les revenus du fédéral, creuser le déficit...etc.
    Il est certain que le gouvernement fédéral est composé de gens qui sont des extrémistes des déficits zéro...dans ce cas, augmentation du déficit, il vont administrer au malade, un médicament qui va finir par le tuer...
    Pour compléter les infos de Monsieur Le Hir un lien intéressant avec des éléments de réflexion sur le marché obligataire
    http://www.intelligence-strategique.eu/