There he goes again. At 79, former Quebec premier and Parti Québécois leader Jacques Parizeau knows that Quebecers aren't likely to hurl themselves over the cliff to independence any time soon, after having declined to take the plunge in 1980 and 1995 (narrowly). But he just can't help but dream in technicolour.
In his latest book, La Souveraineté du Québec, published this week, Parizeau urges the PQ to keep the dream alive by launching a campaign to persuade people that Quebec would function nicely as a sovereign state and would, indeed, be better off economically. It's hardly a novel idea. In 1995 Parizeau claimed that "federalism is costing us a fortune." And in 2005 former PQ leader Bernard Landry likewise said that Quebec would be "much better" on its own.
But then as now, it's hard to see how that could be.
Quebec is burdened with a $150 billion debt, high by provincial standards, and would have to assume another $100 billion as its share of the national debt. It would also lose equalization payments worth close to $80 billion over the last 15 years.
During the last referendum, economist Marcel Côté, a former adviser to Brian Mulroney and Robert Bourassa, warned that an independent Quebec would inherit massive debt and unmanageable deficits, a devalued currency, and huge job losses. The rest of us would suffer too. His findings could use updating. They are no less pertinent today than they were then.
Understandably, Quebec federalists prefer to focus on Canada's advantages rather than be drawn into speculation about a breakup. They have been reluctant to address the "what if" question.
But if the PQ heeds Parizeau's call to make sovereignty "credible" again with dubious studies that mask the risks, Premier Jean Charest's Liberals and other federalists should challenge them head on.
Being part of the larger Canadian economic space is a huge advantage for Quebecers. Younger voters who weren't around in 1995, much less 1980, need to know it.