By HENRY AUBIN - A peculiar mystery of politics is the way the effect of sovereignty on Montreal Island's economy manages to remain a taboo subject.
During the city's last election campaign, two mayoral candidates who are sovereignists -city councillors Louise Harel and Richard Bergeron -refused to answer when I asked them what they thought the impact of Quebec independence might have on their city. Parti Quebecois and Bloc Quebecois politicians have been no more forthcoming in recent years. It's politically incorrect to raise the question.
This year, with the PQ ahead in the polls and determined to create referendum-priming conflicts with Ottawa if elected, the question of Montreal's future in an independent Quebec is getting less theoretical.
Two leaders of Quebec solidaire, the left-wing sovereignist party, at least tried to answer the question when they sat down with Gazette journalists this week to mark that provincial party's fifth anniversary. QS (which is at 10 per cent in the latest poll) is hardly a serious contender for power, but in a referendum it would try to mobilize support among leftists.
QS's co-leaders, MNA Amir Khadir and Francoise David, are smart, articulate politicians. Khadir, whom a Gazette/Le Devoir poll in December suggested was the province's most popular politician, represents a Montreal riding, Mercier, and David wants to represent one, Gouin. Since sovereignty is a party priority, you might assume they'd give serious thought to what their goal would mean for Montreal's economy.
Think again.
The whole point of sovereignty, Khadir said, is to empower Quebecers. Not only would they be free from Ottawa's influence but each region of Quebec would enjoy new strength in an era of decentralized power within Quebec. Today, he noted, it's the Quebec government that decides on the Turcot Interchange's new design and on which company gets the metro-car contract, but decentralization would mean the Montreal region would get a bigger say in such matters.
Fine. I've been pumping for more power for Montreal for years. But that would not require sovereignty.
Nor does decentralization have anything to do with the economy.
David's response was also irrelevant. With sovereignty, she said, Montreal and its off-island suburbs would work more closely together.
But this, too, could be achieved without independence. And it has little to do with the economy.
When asked about how private investment might shun the city in the event of a Yes referendum, Khadir appeared unconcerned. New investment, he said, would replace it. He cited in particular investments by the pharmaceutical industry.
Bad example: Governments have heavily subsidized that industry to come here, and Quebec would presumably have to subsidize it to stay.
The QS leaders' breezy regard for Montreal's future in the republic of Quebec is typical of the sovereignist movement as a whole. In 2005, before becoming PQ leader, Pauline Marois said sovereignty might bring five years of economic "turbulence," but this prompted such angry denial from within the party that neither she nor any other Pequiste has breathed a word of apprehension since.
It's unreal. The lesson of past referendums is that political instability batters Montreal's economy, and common sense says a successful referendum's effect would be devastating: Investments, jobs and talent would leave here en masse. Ordinary Montrealers would suffer.
If sovereignists can contest this, fine. Let them muster a thoughtful counter-argument. But they're mute.
Thus when during the last city election campaign I asked Bergeron what sovereignty's impact might be on Montreal, he ducked, saying this was a provincial and not a municipal issue. But how can someone be for sovereignty and defend Montreal interests at the same time as mayor? Intellectually, the two roles mix no better than oil and water.
When I put the question to Harel, she said an election campaign was an improper time for such discussion. But what better time is there for voters to know what a candidate thinks?
We Quebecers like to sneer at Alberta politicians, including Prime Minister Stephen Harper, for systematically disregarding the oilsands' effect on climate change. But too many Quebec politicians, including those supposedly representing the interests of their Montreal constituents, are just as glaringly in denial about sovereignty's impact of this city's fortunes.
haubin xGE montrealgazette.com.