Crise financière mondiale

Revue de presse - 23 août 2011

Chronique de Richard Le Hir


Citation du jour :

“Capitalism in its raw form can’t pull us out of this hole.”

- Spend Now, Save Later, Bond Fund Leaders Say

By JOHN HARWOOD - WASHINGTON — Early in Bill Clinton’s presidency, his populist advisers saw their spending plans crash into resistance from Wall Street, which demanded deficit-cutting austerity.
“I used to think if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or a .400 baseball hitter,” Mr. Clinton’s political strategist, James Carville, lamented at the time. “But now I want to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everyone.”
So it is relevant to ask: What does the bond market want at this moment of economic peril?
As it happens, two leading bond traders have strong opinions — though not what the Clinton-era populists would have expected.
Austerity? Yes, say Bill Gross, a Republican, and Mohamed El-Erian, a Democrat, the chief investment officers of the giant bond fund Pimco. They support curbs on entitlement spending.
But that is for the long term. Right now, they argue, the government needs to arrest America’s dangerous economic slide.
In fact, their prescriptions are more aggressive than any the White House has proposed or appears to be contemplating for President Obama’s planned speech in September. Among them: direct federal hiring to reduce unemployment and increase lagging demand.
Mr. Gross, a billionaire acclaimed for his early warnings that the dot-com and subprime mortgage bubbles would burst, said,
“Capitalism in its raw form can’t pull us out of this hole.”


- A ‘no-growth’ boom will follow 2012 global crash
- Chute de la confiance des Québécois

L'indice de confiance des ménages québécois compilé par le Conference Board du Canada a chuté à son plus bas niveau depuis l'été 2009, soit 67,1 points. Il s'agit d'une dégringolade de 12,7 points par rapport à son niveau du mois de juillet.
L'indice de confiance des consommateurs canadiens a quant à lui diminué de 6,6 % pendant la même période pour s'établir à 74,7 points.
Dans une note d'analyse, le Mouvement des caisses Desjardins souligne que cette baisse de la confiance des ménages est survenue dans un contexte de «forte volatilité des marchés financiers» découlant de «l'intensification des incertitudes» quant à l'économie mondiale.
La coopérative financière juge ce déclin «inquiétant», particulièrement pour l'économie du Québec qui «vacille» depuis le début du deuxième trimestre.
Selon l'institution, une détérioration de la confiance des ménages pourrait en effet se traduire par un net ralentissement des dépenses de consommation au cours des prochains mois. Desjardins croit toutefois que l'indice pourrait rebondir prochainement.

- L'or approche les 1900$ l'once


Le prix de l'or est monté lundi à un nouveau record, approchant pour la première fois 1.900 dollars l'once, dopé par un cocktail d'inquiétudes sur la vigueur de l'économie mondiale, la crise des dettes de la zone euro et les incertitudes géopolitiques dans le monde arabe.
Le cours de l'once d'or s'est élevé jusqu'à 1.897,90 dollars vers 19H50 GMT sur le marché au comptant, un niveau sans précédent, balayant son précédent record à 1.878,15 dollars enregistré vendredi.
"Le seuil psychologique important de 1.900 dollars devrait être testé très bientôt dans le climat économique actuel (...) L'incertitude et la nervosité restent élevées parmi les investisseurs", les poussant vers la valeur-refuge par excellence qu'est l'or, observaient les analystes de Commerzbank.
Les marchés financiers restaient agités par le spectre d'un retour en récession de l'économie aux Etats-Unis comme en Europe, tout comme par les développements de la crise de la dette au sein de la zone euro.


- La note AAA de la France ne vaut pas son pesant d’or.
- L'accord entre la Grèce et la Finlande sur la dette suscite l'ire de Berlin

L'Allemagne n'a pas caché, lundi 22 août, son mécontentement face à la promesse faite par la Grèce de garantir généreusement l'aide accordée par la Finlande. L'accord gréco-finlandais "doit être approuvé par les autres pays membres de la zone euro", a estimé lundi le ministère des finances allemand.
"Un tel accord bilatéral ne doit pas être conclu au détriment des autres" Etats qui viennent en aide à Athènes, a précisé un porte-parole lors d'une conférence de presse du gouvernement, son homologue auprès de la chancelière Angela Merkel soulignant un "besoin de discussion". "Cet accord doit être expliqué aux autres pays de la zone euro", a estimé ce dernier, expliquant que Berlin n'avait pas encore reçu copie du texte signé entre Athènes et Helsinki.
Le porte-parole de Mme Merkel a par ailleurs jugé que les discussions sur de possibles garanties, désormais réclamées par d'autres pays, devaient être menées"non dans les médias mais dans les instances de la zone euro". La Grèce a accepté la semaine dernière d'accorder à Helsinki une garantie, payée en liquide, sur la contribution finlandaise au sauvetage du pays, suscitant des inquiétudes sur la finalisation du plan de sauvetage de la Grèce. La presse fait état d'une somme de 1 milliard d'euros.


- La BCE a acheté à ce jour plus de 100 milliards d'euros de dette des Etats européens


La Banque centrale européenne (BCE) a dépassé le cap des 100 milliards d'euros d'obligations publiques d'Etats de la zone euro en difficulté achetées. En une semaine, la Banque a racheté 14,29 milliards d'euros de titres de dette, selon un chiffre publié lundi 22 août.
Le volume cumulé de ces rachats de la BCE sur le marché secondaire de la dette, un programme lancé en mai 2010 en pleine crise grecque, atteint désormais 110,5 milliards d'euros. La BCE poursuit ainsi ce programme réactivé il y a une quinzaine de jours après une pause de près de cinq mois. Sur les sept jours précédents, la BCE avait racheté 22 milliards d'euros d'obligations publiques, la plus grosse opération de ce type depuis le lancement du programme.
A présent, la BCE vient au secours des obligations italiennes et espagnoles, selon les économistes, ce qui explique des volumes d'achats sensiblement plus élevés que par le passé. L'institution monétaire a l'intention de poursuivre ce programme cette semaine, est-il précisé dans un communiqué publié sur son site Internet. Les montants de ces rachats, publiés chaque lundi, concernent les opérations réalisées à cheval sur les deux dernières semaines, généralement du mercredi au mercredi.
La BCE va continuer ses rachats d'obligations d'Etats en difficulté jusqu'à la ratification de l'accord du 21 juillet par les Etats européens, ce qui ne pourraitintervenir, au plus tard, que fin octobre, a confié lundi l'un de ses gouverneurs, Ewald Nowotny, au magazine autrichien Profil. Lors de ce sommet, les responsables européens avaient décidé de confier cette tâche au Fonds de secours européen, afin de soulager la BCE, qui ne l'assure qu'à contre-coeur.



- OCDE : la croissance ralentit un peu plus chaque trimestre



Pour le quatrième trimestre consécutif, on assiste dans les pays "riches" à une progression du PIB de moins en moins forte.
La croissance ralentit pour le quatrième trimestre consécutif dans les pays riches, s'affichant à +0,2% d'avril à juin par rapport aux trois mois précédents, selon l'Organisation de coopération et de développement économiques ( OCDE ).
"Le produit intérieur brut (PIB) de la zone OCDE a ralenti à 0,2% au deuxième trimestre 2011, contre 0,3% au trimestre précédent", indique l'organisation dans un communiqué publié lundi.
"Il s'agit du quatrième trimestre consécutif de ralentissement de la croissance", précise l' OCDE , qui confirme ainsi le coup de frein qui touche les économies des pays les plus riches.
En rythme annuel, le PIB dans la zone OCDE a progressé de 1,6% au deuxième trimestre 2011, contre 2,4% au trimestre précédent, selon l'organisation.
"Le ralentissement est particulièrement marqué dans la zone euro et dans l'Union européenne, où la croissance a ralenti à 0,2% contre 0,8% le trimestre précédent", souligne-t-elle.
Aux Etats-Unis, le PIB a progressé de 0,3% au deuxième trimestre, contre 0,1% au premier trimestre, poursuit l' OCDE , alors qu'au Royaume-Uni, il a connu une croissance de 0,2% contre 0,5% au premier trimestre.
Au Japon en revanche, le recul du PIB s'est atténué au deuxième trimestre, à -0,3% contre -0,9% au premier trimestre.




- L'Italie tentée par une nouvelle amnistie fiscale

Alors que l'Allemagne vient de signer un accord fiscal avec la Suisse, le gouvernement italien réfléchit lui aussi à une nouvelle amnistie fiscale pour rapatrier l'argent des fraudeurs. Pour Rome, qui s'est engagé dans un plan d'austérité, l'enjeu est de trouver comment économiser 45,5 milliards d'euros sans trop faire porter le poids de la rigueur sur la population.

- [Germany forced to make a choice: Us or them?
/ Commentary: Berlin’s moment of truth: Stable money or one Europe?->http://www.marketwatch.com/story/germany-forced-to-make-a-choice-us-or-them-2011-08-22]

By David Marsh, MarketWatch LONDON (MarketWatch) — The imposing but sometimes difficult-to-fathom edifice of Germany since the Second World War has been built on a central foundation of international politics: that the Germans should never have to take hard decisions in choosing between intrinsically contradictory alternatives.
As a result of the growing, perhaps terminal strains in economic and monetary union (EMU), that foundation is now starting to crumble. In coming months, Germany may have to make an agonizing choice: stable money or European integration.

- [Wall Street and Overseas Fat Cats Feast On Federal Reserve Cabbage
/ The client list of the shadow State is made public.->http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=45689]

by John Hayward - Bloomberg News reports that the full extent of the loans issued by the Federal Reserve during the mortgage crisis has been made public at last. The list of loan recipients was kept secret until now, but it’s not really surprising:
Citigroup Inc. (C) and Bank of America Corp. (BAC) were the reigning champions of finance in 2006 as home prices peaked, leading the 10 biggest U.S. banks and brokerage firms to their best year ever with $104 billion of profits.
By 2008, the housing market’s collapse forced those companies to take more than six times as much, $669 billion, in emergency loans from the U.S. Federal Reserve. The loans dwarfed the $160 billion in public bailouts the top 10 got from the U.S. Treasury, yet until now the full amounts have remained secret.


- US Becomes Food-Stamp Nation, But Is It Sustainable?


Altogether, there are now almost 46 million people in the United States on food stamps, roughly 15 percent of the population. That's an increase of 74 percent since 2007, just before the financial crisis and a deep recession led to mass job losses.
At the same time, the cost doubled to reach $68 billion in 2010—more than a third of the amount the U.S. government received in corporate income tax last year—which means the program has started to attract the attention of some Republican lawmakers looking for ways to cut the nation's budget deficit


- Nine Signs That a New Global Recession Has Arrived



1. Shipping
Shipping is a critical indicator of global financial health because so many of the world’s goods travel by sea. This includes everything from crude oil to agricultural products to autos. Industry giant AP Moller-Maersk recently reported earnings and said demand had declined sharply. The latest data about dry bulk commodities-shipping costs, as tracked by the Baltic Dry Index, revealed that rates have fallen by a third so far this year. Hanjin Shipping, Orient Overseas and Mitsui OSK Lines have not been able to put into effect normal surcharges that go with peak demand periods, which is an important way that the industry makes money, according to Bloomberg. That is because there simply is not enough demand for the movement of goods from nation to nation.
2. GDP Forecasts
Global economic organizations cut GDP forecasts simultaneously. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development’s May report on GDP improvement among its member nations said the economic expansion had faltered and the decline was expected to continue into 2012. The IMF made similar comments in June. The World Bank also expects a slowdown in global expansion and warned that prices of commodities and oil could cripple any further expansion. Each of these groups is unrelated to the others, so the appearance of red flags from all of them is significant. Each also has the capacity to gather data from most countries around the world, which makes their research capacities unique.
3. Oil demand falls
OPEC cut forecasts for demand. Last month OPEC released a report with its predictions for the year and stated, “Concerns over debt levels in Europe and the U.S., and signs of slowing economic growth in China and India, have spooked the market and raised fears in some quarters of a double-dip recession.” The IEA noted in its most recently Monthly Oil Market Report that, “For the first time since March 2009, China’s monthly apparent demand contracted on an annual basis, falling by 1.5% in June.” It added that, “The decline coincided with evidence that China’s economy is also slowing down and that higher end-user prices are weighing upon demand.” Oil prices are the single most important signal of crude demand. WTI crude has fallen from $105 a barrel less than three months ago to under $80 recently.
4. Stock markets retreat
The world’s major stock markets retreat in lock step. The stock indices in virtually every major nation have had large sell-offs recently. Markets in regions where investors believe that growth will continue to be robust ought to at least trade at the levels they did in early summer, but none do. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and other major indices in the U.S. have fallen 15% recently. Germany’s DAX has struggled after news that the economy there has slowed considerably, which had an impact on stock prices. The UK may already be in recession and its FTSE index shows this. France’s CAC 40 is down as well. In Japan, the Nikkei is down more than 10% in the past month. The stock markets in the strongest regions economically should be doing better at least. But Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is down over 10% in the last month, as is Brazil’s Bovespa. The signals from these stock markets show that the slowdown has spread well beyond the developed world.
5. Unemployment
Unemployment problems worsen across a number of larger nations. The economies with the greatest debt problems in the developed world also tend to have the highest unemployment. The level is 15% in Greece. In Ireland, the number is 14%, and it is 21% in Spain. Government stimulus packages in these nations have become economically impossible as far as political leaders are concerned. But slow-growth nations are not the sum of the trouble. In an analysis of China’s employment level, The Christian Post reported that, “The CIA Factbook records the unemployment figure for China as being under 4 percent, but this percent includes an asterisk that reads: ‘the data is for urban areas only; including migrants may boost total unemployment to 9.’” A drop in the need for exports due to decreased demand in Japan and the West would drive this Chinese joblessness figure higher.
6. Civil War
Effects of civil war. The battle to build democracy in Egypt has badly damaged the nation’s finances, as many businesses have either closed or had sales damaged by the chaos in the country that has still not elected a new permanent government. The situation in Libya is worse, and the problem persists in other nations beset by unrest in the region. The effects are more than trivial. Egypt is the 40th largest economy in the world, based on GDP. Syria, Libya and Iraq are all in the top 70. Protracted civil unrest and the disappearance of an organized economy in these countries will continue to impact exports to these nations.
7. The Poor
Numbers of the impoverished rise. The number of people who live below the poverty line and have poor access to food has risen sharply this year. The UN pointed out as part of the research for its United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development that even though global GDP has increased by 60% since 1992, certain parts of the world have recorded no growth at all. These regions, which account for meaningful global consumption in sum, albeit at a relatively low level, have been hurt further by drought, flood and food prices. At the start of the year, the World Bank reported that, “rising food prices have driven an estimated 44 million people into poverty in developing countries since last June.” Many of the poorest nations need to expand their farming capacity, which could be a source for machinery and seed demand elsewhere. But necessary aid initiatives cannot be funded or circumstances are such that the planting of crops is nearly impossible.
Also Read: Top Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades
8. Government spending cuts
Economic expansion in the U.S., UK, Greece, France, Italy and Spain depends on government spending, to a large extent. That is especially so when the global economy is poor. Rather than increase spending, many nations have slashed their budgets. The eurozone financial crisis is so bad that Greece, Portugal, Italy, Spain and the UK have all cut or pledged to cut government spending significantly to implement austerity programs. These are meant to offset rises in national deficits. The U.S. has begun a similar process, the first stage of which must be finished by November.
9. Wall St. turns against growth
The largest banks and brokerages, perhaps more than any other group, want businesses and investors to believe that the economy will expand. Their income from M&A transactions, individual investing, corporate debt activity and IPOs are all based on robust expansion. Now, some of the largest investment houses have begun to voice pessimism. Morgan Stanley recently cut its estimates for global growth. The bank said the U.S. and eurozone are “hovering dangerously close to recession.” Goldman Sachs also lowered its global GDP forecast. It focused also on dangers in the U.S. and Europe, listing sovereign debt problems and the lack of government financial support to national economies as cause for concern.
Douglas A. McIntyre

- Could Be Making a Losing Bet on More Fed Easing



- Even if Fed Moves on Third Round of Stimulus, Markets Won't Take Off


- Consumer Debt Forgiveness May Be Needed



- Number of Delinquent Mortgages on the Rise Again


After several quarters of improvements, the number of U.S. homeowners who are late on their mortgages increased in the second quarter, according to a survey by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
The second-quarter mortgage delinquency rate rose to 8.44 percent of all mortgage loans outstanding, according to the MBA's Mortgage Deliquency Survey. That is an increase of 0.12 percent from the previous quarter, but is still down 1.41 percent from the same period a year ago.



- UK household finances are 'worse than during height of recession'


Household budgets are deteriorating at a faster rate than during the height of the recession in early 2009, according to an analysis of consumers' finances.

By James Hurley - Almost 40pc of households saw their finances deteriorate between July and August, compared to just under 6pc that reported an improvement as Britons were hit by rising prices and a squeeze on take-home pay.
The latest Markit household finance index also found consumers suffered the fastest fall in their available cash since the monthly survey began in February 2009.
Income from employment fell for the eleventh month running – August saw the steepest decline in take-home pay for nine months – while spending power continued to be squeezed by rising prices.
Markit said these factors contributed to the sharpest reduction in savings since March 2009. Debt levels increased for the fifth consecutive month, and at the fastest pace since November 2010.
The gloomy outlook applied to all income groups, age ranges and regions monitored by the survey, but consumers in the north of England are suffering more than those in the south, the financial information company found.



- Greek Collateral Deals Put Bailout at Risk: Moody's


Euro zone states seeking collateral for aid to Greece should think again if they want its bailout to stay on track, a rating agency said, as one of them said it would only press for such guarantees as a last resort.

Greece agreed last week to provide AAA-rated Finland with cash collateral for its loans to Athens, in a bilateral agreement that sparked requests for similar treatment from Austria, the Netherlands and Slovakia.
As finance ministry experts said Greece faced a deeper than expected recession, Moody's warned on Monday that by trying to secure collateral, its euro zone peers risked delaying the debt-mired state's next bailout payment and driving it into default.
The rating agency also said it expected other euro area members to block the agreement with Finland, and Dutch Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager said suggestions the bilateral deal was lawful were incorrect.



- Karl Marx Is Hot

Joe Weisenthal - With things going the way they are, a lot of people are talking about big history in action, whether it's the breakup of the Eurozone, or the simultaneous market/economic/political spasm happening in the US.
Today Paul Krugman reminds us once again that this could be 1937 all over again.
Simon Johnson thinks it could be even worse: The long depression of the 1870s all over again.
Recently Nouriel Roubini got a lot of attention for saying that Marx basically got the battle between labor and capital correct, and that capitalism itself now stood on the brink of collapse.
And even on Wall Street...
UBS' George Magnus has a big piece out on political economy favorably quoting Karl Marx:
“At a certain stage of development, the material productive forces of society come into conflict with the existing relations of production or - this merely expresses the same thing in legal terms - with the property relations within this framework of which they have operated hitherto”.
Preface to A Contribution to the Critique of Political Economy, Karl Marx (1859)

In ‘The Return of Political Economy’ (Economic Insights, 5th February 2010), I wanted to emphasize how, in the wake of the financial and economic crisis of 2008-09, the interaction between political and economic decision-making would come to play an increasingly significant role in the determination of economic, and market outcomes. Looking at the time at the complicated legacy of de-
leveraging in developed markets, the embryo of the sovereign debt crisis, especially in Europe, and growing social and economic contradictions in China, it was possible to imagine, if not predict precisely, pretty much what we see playing out today.

Now you don’t have to be a member of the Socialist International to recognize that Marx’s words above have contemporary relevance. For him, post-feudal ‘conflict’ would lead to social revolution and the overthrow of bourgeois society, but we know different, not least because the Western model of economic development overhauled and democratised the concept of ‘ownership’ (of the means of production). Nevertheless, the old guy was a pretty shrewd analyst, learned a lot about political economy from likes of Adam Smith and David Ricardo among others, and offered some still relevant insights into how and why things happen in the economy and society.
The quote above captures the important idea of conflict or turbulence when events happen that lead to challenges to the power, authority and legitimacy of the existing political and economic order. During the last several months, we have seen a succession of such challenges in the Eurozone, the US, and even, in embryonic form, in China. The recent skittishness in financial markets and increase in risk premiums reflect not only a rise in anxiety about the deteriorating health of the global economy, but the draining of confidence that political elites are up to the task of addressing it.

This note, then, considers the existential crisis in the Eurozone, ‘deficit attention disorder’ in the US and other advanced economies, and China’s current political economy, for which the recent high-speed rail accident serves as an interesting metaphor.
Again, you know it's a real panic when everyone's trotting out the old guys, and even capitalists think Marx got the endgame right.



- Eurozone Crackup - "Open Your Eyes: the Euro and Europe are on the Edge of the Precipice"

By MIKE WHITNEY
"We believe that the market has now entered a major downtrend. It is a mistake to dismiss the slide we’ve seen to date as mindless and devoid of fundamentals as many strategists maintain. These are not just scary headlines—-they are scary fundamentals.... There will undoubtedly be some more sharp rallies that will be interpreted as new bull markets. In our view, however, the bear market has only begun, and has a long way to go."



- S&P Board Fires CEO For Telling The Truth, To Be Replaced With COO Of Citibank

Following years of pandering to client demands, and assigning trillions of dollars in fixed income securities with whatever rating money bought (among other things, a factor to the credit bubble and its subsequent implosion) S&P finally tried to do the right thing and tell the truth. However in this case it picked if not the worst, then certainly the most hypocriticial credit in the world to expose - the US itself. Sure enough two weeks after the downgrade, someone made the phone call and the CEO Deven Sharma is no more. As for the kick square in the gonads: Sherma will be replaced with the COO of...you know it... the bank which demanded tens of billions in secret Fed bailout loans itself, Citibank, and whose existence is inextricably tied to America not seeing any more downgrades ever again.
As the FT reports, "The McGraw-Hill board made the decision to replace Mr Sharma at a meeting on Monday, where it also discussed an ongoing strategic review." Alas, this is nothing but a case study of modern corporate reality in America: if you are not with the status quo, you are against it, and you are promptly booted out of it: anyone who does not share the visions of one glorious future built on ponzi schemes, houses of cards, and games of three card monte, will be promptly suicided, either physically or professionally.
We expect that this flagrant example of how the powers that be will deal with any dissenters will instill the fear of god in anyone at either Moodys (or the French sycphants from Fitch) and nobody will ever again menton the words "US" and "downgrade" in the same sentence.
From the FT:
Deven Sharma is stepping down as president of Standard & Poor’s only weeks after the rating agency issued an unprecedented downgrade of the credit of the US, according to people familiar with the matter.

Mr Sharma will remain as an adviser to S&P’s owner, McGraw-Hill, for four months and leave the company at the end of the year, they said.

Mr Sharma will be replaced as S&P president by Douglas Peterson, chief operating officer of Citibank, the banking unit of Citigroup, they said.
As for the official story:
People close to the company said the search for Mr Sharma’s replacement has been going on for six months, and was triggered by the split of its data, pricing and analytics business from its ratings business. The creation of that new group, McGraw-Hill Financial, reduced the scope of Mr Sharma’s oversight, they said.
So let us get this straight: in America when you dare to tell the truth, your career is over, while if you are a corrupt, lying, incompetent tax evader you not only get to be Treasury Secretary but likely will be on for life as long as you do the one duty you are entrusted with: pander to the interests of the Too Big To Fail financial institutions
We should be speechless but at this point we are well beyond the point of even caring.
The question here is how long before S&P issues the following upgrade of the US:
"Great service, AAA+++ rating, immediate payment, would do business again!!!"


Gold Nears $1,900 - Venezuela Formally Requests Gold Holdings Held

By BOE Ship By Sea
All major currencies have fallen against gold and silver again today with gold reaching new record nominal highs in most fiat currencies including U.S. dollars. Gold reached a new record of $1,894.80/oz - just shy of $1,900.
Cross Currency Table
Gold is trading at 1,870.10 USD , 1,296.40 EUR , 1,132.40 GBP, 1,470.90 CHF and 143,670 JPY per ounce and has risen some 1% in all currencies. Gold is particularly strong against the yen and Swiss franc which have fallen in international markets on concerns of debasement.
The London AM fix was a fourth consecutive record nominal high in US dollars. Gold’s London AM fix this morning was USD 1,877.75, EUR 1303.17, GBP 1139.55 per ounce (from Friday’s USD 1,862, EUR 1299.28, GBP 1126.91 per ounce).
Silver is in all major currencies and has risen another 1.4% in dollars after last week’s 8% gain.
Gold’s 6.2% rise last week and silver’s 8.2% rise was barely reported in the press and media in Europe over the weekend – with all the focus continuing to be on equities and to a lesser extent bonds. The usual suspects in stockbrokerages and banks warned about gold being a bubble again.
Silver was not reported at all and remains almost completely taboo in the non specialist financial press. Besides the very occasional article warning that it is a bubble.
According to Bloomberg, the central bank of Venezuela has sent a statement by e-mail requesting its 99 tons of gold holdings from the Bank of England, citing the institution’s president Nelson Merentes.



- Bof A Warns Upcoming "Desperate Measures" By Authorities Will Result In Another 2008 Market Collapse
Last week we had Citigroup warning that the market bottom is about to fall out, as the Fed is more than likely to disappoint already very lofty expectations (according to various estimates from both Goldman and the second Tier banks, i.e., all of them, the market has priced in roughly $500 billion in QE3 already). Today, Bank of America, which may or may not be with us much longer, has taken this desperate alarmism several notches further, and is warning that due to the gridlock in both the fiscal ("fiscal authorities have bombarded the markets with a quadraphonic message of hopelessness") and monetary ("the Fed is out of bullets anyway") stimulative pathways, the likely outcome of anything from DC will be nothig short of a disaster. To wit: "rather than a repeat of 2010, when the Fed saved the day with QE2, we think we are moving closer to a repeat of 2008, when major policy errors devastated the economy." For once we actually agree with Bank of America: "In our view, the pressure to “do something” is now far more likely to result in more desperate or radical measures, even if it is bad policy." Does this mean that we are looking at a TARP "vote down" market reaction this Friday if indeed the chairman disappoints? We will know for sure in about 100 hours, which just may be the longest 100 hours for bulls since the start of the artificial and solely QE inspired bear market levitation in March of 2009.






Laissez un commentaire



Aucun commentaire trouvé