Five weeks ago, this election was about nothing. I liked it that way. The stakes were low, and we could laugh over pooping puffins.
Then the U.S. financial system collapsed. The giant bailout didn't seem to help. Markets tanked and the contagion spread around the world. Banking systems are being nationalized, and entire countries are heading for receivership. No one knows how severe the global downturn will be. But even kids know that tougher times are coming.
Yet, Incremental Man can't bring himself to say so. He has built our ark, and it is a good ark. Besides, every storm cloud has a silver lining. "I think there are probably some great buying opportunities out there," he told an incredulous Peter Mansbridge the other day. When Peter asked him if he really meant to say that, he said it again.
What a gift to the other guys. Yesterday, Stéphane Dion and Jack Layton could scarcely disguise their glee. Mr. Harper is entirely out of touch with ordinary Canadians! Inspired by fantasies of actually forming the next government, Mr. Dion delivered the most energetic speech of his campaign.

You've got to feel sorry for Mr. Harper. Try as he might, he has an empathy deficit (a term coined by my friend L. Ian MacDonald) that can seem as big as the Grand Canyon. That's a huge disadvantage in times of turmoil. But the famously control-oriented Mr. Harper has an even bigger disadvantage. It's awfully hard for him to deviate from his election script.
For a lot of folks, this crisis feels like a financial 9/11. Even though we in Canada haven't suffered a direct hit, we know the world will never be the same. Mr. Harper's steady-as-she-goes response makes it seem as if he's in denial. He talks about the past. But everyone is worried about the future.
Canadians aren't stupid. Two-thirds of us think there's a recession coming, and most think property values are set to fall. We know the U.S. recession could be long and hard. We know our export markets will be hammered. We know the manufacturing jobs we're losing won't come back, and that it could take years for people to make up the hit to their retirement funds. Even though Canada is in far better shape than other countries, we're going to face challenges. What's so wrong with saying what's so obviously true?
Yesterday Mr. Harper regained some lost ground. He talked about the worldwide bank cuts, and how they will keep mortgages down for ordinary people. He wouldn't touch the R-word. Nor would he utter the word "deficit," even though he surely knows that when and if we have an R, it might be sensible to have one. But for the first time since the crisis he looked neither in denial nor defensive.
There's a big difference between management and leadership. Mr. Harper's style of management by increments is fine in normal times. But in these times, we need someone who can explain the big picture in a way that reassures. We need someone who can talk candidly about the challenges we face, and how we can best ride out the storm. Mr. Harper is an able economic manager. But he has yet to meet the test of leadership.
That's too bad, because the other guys are downright scary. Stéphane Dion wants to spend an extra $80-billion, which would come from a massive tax experiment that no one understands. The Big Dipper's mix of subsidy programs and higher corporate taxes would put us out of business. Gilles Duceppe plans to extort a few more billions for Quebec.
Buying them all off could get expensive. At worst, we could wind up like Italy - broke, with a pizza parliament, but without the food, art and fabulous shoes.
No wonder people are in such a foul mood. The stakes were never meant to be so high. The election that used to be about nothing is now about whom you trust to get us through the mess that lies ahead. And the answer, so far, is: no one.