By Licia Corbella, Calgary Herald - Today, let's have some fun and play fairy godmother to Quebec. Let's grant the province the wish it articulated in Copenhagen. Wave the magic wand and poof, wish granted. Shut down Alberta's oilsands, except, since it's Quebec making the wish, we have to call it tarsands, even though it's not tar they use to run their Bombardier planes, trains and Skidoos.
Ah, at last! The blight on Canada's reputation shut down. All those dastardly workers from across Canada living in Fort McMurray, Calgary and Edmonton out of jobs, including those waitresses, truck drivers, nurses, teachers, doctors, pilots, engineers etc. They can all go on employment insurance like Ontario autoworkers and Quebec parts makers!
Closing down Alberta's oil industry would immediately stop the production of 1.8 million barrels of oil a day. Supply and demand being what it is, oil prices will go up and therefore the cost at the pump will go up, too, increasing the cost of everything else.
But lost jobs in Alberta and across the country along with higher gas prices are a small price to pay to save the world and not "embarrass" Quebecers on the world stage. Not to worry though, Saudi Arabia, Libya and Nigeria can come to the rescue. You know, the guys who pump money into al-Qaeda and help Osama bin Laden target those Van Doos fighting in Afghanistan. Bloody oil is so much nicer than dirty tarsands oil.
Shutting down the oilsands will reduce Canada's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 38.4 Mt (megatonnes). Hooray! It's so fun to be a fairy godmother! While that sounds like a lot, Canada only produces two per cent of the world's man-made GHGs and the oilsands only produce five per cent of Canada's total emissions or 0.1 per cent of the world's emissions. By comparison, the U.S. produces 20.2 per cent of the world's GHG emissions -- 27 per cent of which comes from coal-fired electricity.
The 530 sq.-km piece of land currently disturbed by the tarsands (which is smaller than the John F. Kennedy Space Center at Cape Canaveral, Florida at 570 sq. km) must be reclaimed by law and will return to Alberta's 381,000 sq. km of boreal forest, a huge carbon sink. Quebec, of course, has clean hydro power, but more than 13,000 sq. km were drowned for the James Bay hydroelectric project, permanently removing that forest from acting as a carbon sink.
But fairy godmother is digressing all over the place. While the oilsands only produce five per cent of Canada's GHGs, it contributes much more to Canada's economy, with oil and gas making up one-quarter of the value on the TSX alone. Alberta is also the largest net contributor per capita by far to Confederation and there are only two more -- B.C. and Ontario.
Quebec hasn't made a net contribution to the rest of Canada for a very long time. This is not to be critical (after all, fairy godmothers never criticize) it's just a fact.
In 2009, Albertans paid $40.46 billion in income, corporate and other taxes to the federal government and received back just $19.35 billion in services and goods from the feds. That means the rest of Canada got $21.1 billion from Albertans or $5,742 for each and every Alberta man, woman and child. In 2007 (the last year national figures are available), Alberta sent a net contribution of $19.49 billion to the ROC or $5,553 per Albertan -- more than three times what every Ontarian contributes at $1,757. Quebecers, on the other hand, each received $627 net or a total of $8 billion, money which was designed to help "equalize" social programs across the country. Except, that's not what's happening. Quebec has more generous social programs, like (nearly) free university tuition (paid for mostly by Albertans) and cheap provincial day care (paid for mostly by Albertans).
But in this fairy godmother world, poof! those delightful unequal programs have now disappeared! Quel dommage!
The July 2009 Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) report states that between 2008 and 2032, the oilsands will account for 172,000 person-years of employment in Ontario during the construction phase, plus 640,000 for operations over the 25-year period. For Quebec, the oilsands will account for 84,000 person-years of employment during the construction phase, plus 292,000 for operations over the 25-year period. In total, the tarsands are expected to add $1.7 trillion to Canada's GDP over the next 25 years.
Wave wand. Poof. Jobs, gone! This fairy godmother role isn't all it's cracked up to be. So, now that the oil industry has shut down and left Alberta, Alberta has become a have-not province and so has every other province. Equality at last! Hugo Chavez will be so pleased. Meeting our Copenhagen targets suddenly looks possible, as most of us can't afford to drive our cars or buy anything but necessities, so manufacturers have closed their doors and emissions are way down.
The dream of many Quebecers to form their own nation and separate from Canada has died at last. Fairy godmothers always like to look on the bright side. Quebecers finally realize they can't thrive without the ROC. Alas, in Alberta, separatist sentiment has risen dramatically, citizens vote to separate and the oil and gas industry returns. Albertans start to pocket that almost $6,000 for each person that used to get sent elsewhere and now their kids get free tuition.
Fairy godmother's work is done. Wish granted. Quebecers must now sign up for a foreign worker visas to work in Alberta to send their cheques back home so junior can start saving up to pay for college.
lcorbella@theherald.canwest.com