Tasha Kheiriddin -
Just when you thought the Quebec separatist movement had taken a holiday, it sputters to life in the summer sun. First, in the form of a letter by Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe, sent two weeks ago to 1,600 elected officials around the world, warning of another referendum on Quebec independence. (The missive was printed on House of Commons stationary, no less; what would Auditor-General Sheila Fraser think of that office budget expense?)
Next, PQ leader Pauline Marois took up the battle cry this past weekend, pledging to hold another referendum, though without a fixed date. She also promised to extend the application of Bill 101 to the college level, to prevent anglophone and allophone Quebecers from attending English junior colleges.
Finally, on Sunday, 1,000 souls marched in support of independence, through the streets of 10 Quebec cities and towns. Granted, not a massive show of support for the cause. But enough to get tongues wagging, columnists blogging and federalist politicians fretting. After all, dreams die hard: One protester in Montreal even compared Quebec's independence to the fall of the Berlin Wall.
These various pronouncements come on the eve of three significant events: the 20th anniversary of the death of the Meech Lake Accord, on June 23, 1990; St. Jean Baptiste Day, Quebec's national holiday, which falls annually on June 24; and the G20 summit, which is set to paralyze downtown Toronto from June 25-27. An interesting juxtaposition, because if Quebec were to become its own country, it would likely bury Meech, elevate St. Jean Baptiste Day to the status of a Quebecois Fourth of July--and sit out the summit.
Never mind the G8, but it's hard to see how an independent Quebec would become a member even of the G20. Both in terms of population and total GDP, it would rank below any current member nation. The country with the smallest population in the club is Australia, at 22 million people. The country with the lowest GDP is South Africa, projected by the IMF to be US$329-billion in 2010. Meanwhile, Quebec has a population of just under eight million and a projected GDP of US$293-billion, at current exchange rates.
And those numbers would probably both drop, in the short term at least, due to the economic and demographic repercussions of political uncertainty following an independence vote. An outmigration similar to that experienced in the late 1970s, when 100,000 anglophones left the province between 1976 and 1980, would seriously damage the economy. While more English-speakers may stay this time around, diminished job prospects would affect all Quebecers, including francophones, making a one-way trip west on Highway 401 that much more attractive.
Knowing this, and with the world literally on Canada's doorstep, why beat the separatist drum now? The PQ senses weakness in the Liberal camp. Premier Jean Charest's polling numbers have plummeted in the wake of accusations of spending irregularities, allegations of judge-buying and a budget chock full of user fees. The latest poll puts the PQ in first place, with 41% of the overall vote and 49% of the francophone vote. That's enough to form a majority government, due to the concentration of federalist voters in Montreal ridings; even on the island, the PQ outpolls the Liberals 40% to 36%.
None of this is good news for the embattled Premier, or for Quebecers and Canadians who wish they could enjoy their summer in peace, without a referendum storm cloud blackening the horizon. It's also the last thing Prime Minister Stephen Harper needs to hear as he welcomes the G20 to Toronto. But maybe the summit will work in federalists' favour; fake lakes aside, Canada has a chance to shine on the world stage, and show Quebecers-- and all Canadians--the benefits of remaining part of our federation. Membership has its privileges, and they shouldn't be taken for granted.
tkheiriddin@nationalpost.com