National Post - Adam Daifallah : Hope for federalists

Adam Daifallah - Today marks the 20th anniversary of Gilles Duceppe's election to Parliament, when he became the first candidate to win a seat running under the Bloc Québécois banner. (Seven MPs, including Jean Lapierre, already were sitting as a group of independentist MPs, having defected from the Conservatives and Liberals.)
No doubt, Duceppe's feelings will be mixed on this anniversary. For a political party to have just three leaders in 20 years — him and Lucien Bouchard, and Michel Gauthier for a year — represents an impressive bit of political longevity. But the Bloc's drive to achieve sovereignty is still a far off dream. They've failed colossally at their primary objective : to no longer need to be sent to Ottawa.
The Bloc has become one of most stubbornly vexing political forces in the Western world. The Conservatives, Liberals and NDP all have expended significant political capital to make a dent in the Bloc's base. They have held conventions in Quebec, sent their leaders around Quebec, appointed Quebec lieutenants and advisors and kowtowed to nationalists.
The Conservatives — the only party with a realistic chance of taking a significant number of seats from the Bloc — can't decide if they are serious or not about Quebec. They have alternated from obsessing over the province to not caring at all.
It's all been for naught anyway. If an election were held today, the Bloc would win at least the same number of the province's seats they hold now — 48 of 75 — and probably even a few more.
The old arguments against the Bloc are proven failures. The Tories have claimed that the Bloc is a useless party, that sending sovereignist MPs to Ottawa is a waste of Quebecers' tax dollars, and that the Bloc is not representing Quebec's interests. Others claim Quebecers need to be educated : "The challenge for the federal government and for English Canada is to help francophones understand how damaging this branch plant really is," the Montreal Gazette wrote a few days ago in an editorial lamenting the 20th anniversary.
Actually, no. Taking on this "challenge" would be futile because the Bloc is not "damaging" at all — at least, not from Quebec's perspective.
The party stays popular for two reasons. The first is Duceppe himself. He's admired and trusted by friends and foes alike, and Quebecers like federal leaders from Quebec. The second is that the Bloc's presence in Ottawa acts as an insurance policy against the rest of Canada, virtually guaranteeing "concessions" to the province by the governing party in the (futile) hopes of trying to pull support away from the Bloc.
Quebecers trust the Bloc to fight for Quebec's "interests" because they succeed. They've been able to wrestle countless wins for Quebec in Parliament, from Paul Martin's asymmetrical deal on health care in 2004 to the recognition of Quebec as a "nation." So long as the Bloc remains popular, or even a threat, the other parties will try to outbid them for Quebec voters. The Bloc wins just by showing up.
But there's a bit of hope for federalists.
For one, Duceppe can't lead forever. We already know he's harboured thoughts of leaving, thanks to his botched attempt to take over the Parti Québécois in 2007. None of the potential successors, either inside or outside the Bloc caucus, can hold a candle to Duceppe.
The second reason for optimism is demographics. After the next federal seat redistribution, which could, but probably won't, occur before the next election, Ontario, Alberta and B.C. will get about 30 new seats, thus making the formation of a majority government without many — or any — Quebec seats not only possible but plausible. Such an electoral outcome would not be a desirable for obvious reasons, but it can't be ruled out. Frustration with Quebec, particularly grassroots Tories, is gradually being replaced with indifference, so the idea of disregarding la belle province is gaining support.
With Quebec support no longer needed to win a majority, you can expect the Tories, and maybe even the Liberals or NDP, to spend less political capital in the province. The Bloc would then become a lesser force and the federal political dynamic would change significantly.
We've all learned to stay away from predicting the Bloc's demise. But their 20th anniversary may well be a happier occasion than their 25th.
National Post
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