War is on. This is probably the big one. And it is happening now, only at a slower pace than many people expected. And it will have a huge impact on how you live over the next couple of years, when mysterious events happen that defy expectation and forecast.
And, if Putin is right, this war will be over by the end of 2016.
So it is important that you read this carefully and interpret all reports, data, and current events in light of what I’m about to tell you.
As I reported yesterday (important to read: here it is), the current economic and currency crisis in Russia isn’t your typical economic crisis. That is, this isn’t just a part of the business cycle. And it isn’t something that is happening because demand for oil is up or the supply of oil is down.
This is a two-pronged attack by the U.S. — and it is a desperate one, at that.
The U.S. is in a very tough spot. Currently, after several years of expansionist (inflationary) policy at the Fed, the U.S. economy is in a bubble that is about to pop. In order to prop up the dollar while simultaneously printing trillions, the U.S. has decided to use their military to force nations to sell their natural resources for dollars. This increases demand for the dollar (because nations need dollars for natural resources) and prevents rapid devaluation of the dollar. Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Iran have been the most notable military and economic targets.
But recently, Russia, China, and North Korea have also had a role in undermining demand for the dollar. It has been widely reported that Russia and China are moving away from the dollar as a reserve currency, and that they have made agreements to sell their natural resources to one another in other currencies. And the U.S. attacked a North Korean oil ship early in 2014, when they dared to make an “illicit” purchase of oil from Libyan rebels. (They weren’t paying for it in dollars. How dare they?)
So the U.S. has repeatedly been provoking Russia and trying to poke Putin until he does something stupid, allowing the West to attack in the name of “defending Europe against the next Hitler.” Of course, almost all of the news about Putin, Russia, and Ukraine falls into this category of provoking Putin. And many are aware of the fact that this will lead to another war in Europe — World War 3. This includes Putin’s economic advisor:
Even the godless pope knows we’re in the early stages of World War 3.
That said, the U.S.’s economic crisis and looming collapse puts them in a weak position. And Russia is a major threat, both providing support for Syria and Iran, as well as starting to drop the dollar itself.
So the U.S. either wants Putin out of office (either out or dead) or they want him to be the scapegoat for the hot phase of the war. And this is where the two-pronged economic attack comes in. In order to provoke a dumb move on Putin’s part, the U.S. has done the following:
The First Prong: Obama started imposing sanctions against Russia early in 2014, and he has progressively increased the severity of these sanctions — imposing more even over the past week, as Russia is in the midst of a currency crisis. Imposing sanctions was a nuisance than anything, and Putin didn’t budge. So the U.S. escalated things in the second half of 2014.
The Second Prong: Obama made an agreement with Saudi Arabia. You can read about the details here, where I discuss a report from the Wall Street Journal and other sources. The U.S. agreed to attack Syria on behalf of the Saudi king. This alone is a provocation against Russia because Syria is a Russian ally. Impressively, Putin didn’t fall for it. But the other part of the agreement, it appears, was that Saudi Arabia would significantly cut oil prices in order to put significant pressure on the Russian economy, either provoking Putin to take military action or the Russian people to call for his ouster.
Unsurprisingly, Russia has weathered the storm fairly well. Why isn’t this a surprise?
The Russian economy is stronger than the U.S. economy, and Putin knows it.
In fact, it appears that Putin’s war strategy against the U.S. is to wait for the inevitable collapse of the U.S. His speech last week was very telling. Here are a couple of the most important highlights (from the Guardian):
- He said that the economy would recover within two years — by the end of 2016.
- He said “external factors” were to blame for the difficulty, mentioning that sanctions and a U.S.-Saudi oil-pricing conspiracy may have caused the crisis.
This is very important. Putin is acknowledging this is caused by economic warfare, but he isn’t too worried about it. He even seems confident that it will be over before 2017. Why is this?
Because Putin knows the U.S. can’t do this indefinitely. The reduced oil prices will hurt America more than Russia. And he’s content to fight this economic war by sticking to his far more powerful guns — namely, by continuing to drop the dollar.
So, it seems, Putin may agree with the Russian lawmaker, Mikhail Degtyarev, who tried to pass a law protecting Russians from the U.S. dollar in 2013.
“If the U.S. national debt continues to grow at its current rate, the dollar system will collapse in 2017,” said Degtyarev’s legislation.
If Putin agrees with this, or even thinks the collapse will come a little earlier, it is easy to see why he feels comfortable patiently waiting out this economic crisis for a couple years.
After all, it will be far, far worse for his enemies in the West.
What to Expect in 2015 and 2016
So, can we get more specific about what we’ll see in 2015 and 2016?
Here’s a list of six things to watch for.
First, watch for the unexpected. War is an unpredictable animal. Economic warfare included. If the U.S. intends to sink Russia, there’s no question about it: Russia intends to retaliate. So, if the ruble has been attacked by the U.S., the dollar will be attacked by Russia.
Second, the U.S.’s economic attack on Russia is not an attempt to win an economic war with them. All indications are that they can’t pull that off. The goal has been to provoke Russia to do something stupid, or to get the Russian people to overthrow Putin. This means that the U.S. cannot keep the oil prices down forever. Instead, they may try to do a few more things to aggravate the Russian economic problems, perhaps even trying to stir up anti-Putin protesters. These efforts will probably fail. Shortly after it becomes clear that Putin isn’t budging, I would expect oil prices to gradually increase again — moving closer to market values.
Third, I expect the U.S. to continue to provoke Russia in the Ukraine, by supporting worse and worse atrocities against “pro-Russian rebels.”
Fourth, Russia will continue to strengthen alliances with China and North Korea, just as the U.S. is trying to steal Cuba away from being a Russian ally close to home. Both sides will continue trying to develop alliances for the hot phase of the war.
Fifth, the war will almost certainly go hot at some point — probably in 2016. Either Russia and its allies will make the first move once it becomes obvious the war is inevitable, or the U.S. will use false-flag attacks. If the propaganda is any indication, this may be a multi-faceted terrorist attack involving cyber-attacks against banks and the power grid, as well as nuclear, biological, or chemical attacks on the mainland. But no one knows for sure. Anyone who pretends to know exactly what will happen, or precisely when it will happen, probably doesn’t deserve an audience.
Finally, the dollar will probably experience significant inflation at some point — maybe even catastrophic hyperinflation. This won’t be pretty. But it seems to be what Putin is banking on, and he’s pretty confident about it.