Kelly McParland - Maybe Gilles Duceppe should move to Scotland. The former Bloc Quebecois leader lost almost his entire caucus last week and quit his job. Coincidentally, the independence movement in Scotland has picked up speed after the Scottish National Party won a surprise majority in the Scottish parliament.
The SNP is all but certain to hold a referendum on breaking away from Britain, though possibly not right away. Leader Alex Salmond has promised to stage a vote on separation in the second half of the parliament, which lasts until 2016, but may be pressured to act sooner by party hardliners.
The implications are considerable. David Williamson at Walesonline says the SNP’s new standing “will send regular tremors through the United Kingdom over the next five years and Wales will feel the full force of each shock-wave.”
First, independence is on the agenda, and the future of the UK as we know it has been called into question. …
This means that over the coming years there will be intensive coverage of the debate and scrutiny of the viability of an independent Scotland. The controversy will provoke strong reactions on either side of the debate but it also gives time for people to become used to the idea that the different parts of the UK are linked by the principle of consent and not some impermeable constitutional cement.
It is inevitable that this will embolden supporters of Welsh independence and force Plaid Cymru to clearly articulate its own position.
Williamson also notes Labour’s loss in Scotland means it is out of power in both England and Scotland, making Labour’s Welsh leader the party’s senior elected figure.
On The Guardian’s political blog, Michael White mocks the British for forgetting Scotland exists until someone in Scotland suggests independence, and then getting into a panic.
It’s happening again in the wake of the SNP’s historic election sweep against Labour for the Scottish parliament. Yet wily Alex Salmond is one step ahead of his English critics as usual, so this morning’s Guardian reports him offering “devolution max” as an alternative to outright independence or the status quo in the referendum he still says he’s gagging to stage.
This manoeuvre is dressed up as a statesmanlike compromise. Good old Alex! But it reflects the underlying Scottish reality that only about one in four Scots voters currently favours independence from England, not from the crown or the pound, as things stand.
White notes that (as with Quebec) the Scots want independence from Britain, but not from the British treasury, which saved their banks during the global meltdown. “The Nats are still keen on “their” oil, not so keen on “their” bust banks,” he writes.
The BBC reports that David Cameron’s coalition government will not block a referendum. However, the Telegraph reports that Salmond and Cameron remain “at loggerheads” on the issue — including the issue of who sets the terms of separation, and who gets to dictate the wording of the referendum question. Sound familiar? Clarity Act, anyone?
There is also concern over the SNP’s preferred wording on the ballot paper, which would see Scots asked to give Mr Salmond permission only to “negotiate” the end of the United Kingdom.
[Salmond] he has no intention of staging a second referendum after those negotiations are complete so Scots can give their verdict on the settlement, which would include an independent Scotland’s share of Britain’s national debt.
Reports indicate Cameron is already under pressure to hold a snap referendum of his own, to beat the Scots to the punch. If Mr. Salmond is allowed to pick the referendum date, there are suggestions he’ll chose the 700th anniversary of the Battle of Bannockburn in 2014, the date of a Scottish victory over the English in the first war of independence.
The Scotsman points out that while the SNP may have the power to seek negotiations with Britain, a “referendum bill that purported to create a legal basis for independence directly would be beyond the powers of the Scottish Parliament.”
Key to independence will be the terms on which it takes place, though.
There are big issues to be resolved as part of any negotiation. How will the North Sea’s oil reserves and the UK’s national debt be divided? When, and how, would Scotland become a member of the European Union? What about the UK defence bases, particularly Faslane? The SNP believes the answers to these issues can be easily resolved, but London is unlikely to look at them in the same way.
For that reason, it is hard to put a question in a referendum that kicks off the process that enables the Scottish people to make an informed choice about their national future.