Quebecers who are not adamantly in favour of separating from Canada but are tempted to vote for the Parti Québécois simply in the hope of getting better governance should pause to ponder the full consequences of electing a PQ government.
Such voters might be reassured by PQ Leader Pauline Marois’s ambivalence about whether she would call another sovereignty referendum in the first term of a PQ government. But they should be aware that pressure to get on with such a referendum sooner rather than later will probably come not only from separatist hardliners within the PQ, but this time also from the federal and other provincial governments, as well as public opinion in the rest of Canada.
There is little stomach anymore among the Canadian population outside this province to placate Quebec nationalists with further jurisdictional concessions and fiscal payoffs. If there is to be another referendum, there will be no federalist love-in as there was during the last one. Canadians will not be flocking here from out of province to profess fond fellowship with Quebecers. The message this time will be: Decide once and for all if you want out, and if you want out, get all the way out and do it fast.
This expectation is supported by a national poll released this summer that found that close to half of Canadians outside Quebec (49 per cent) “don’t really care” if Quebec separates, and that a similar number would consider it “not really a big deal.”
At the same time, a strong majority of 57 per cent rejected the notion of any form of political association or economic partnership with an independent Quebec — something PQ governments touted as a lure for Quebecers in the two previous referendum campaigns.
Pressure for an early referendum from the federal and other provincial governments should be expected since a PQ government bent on pulling Quebec out of Canada cannot be expected to bargain in good faith in upcoming negotiations on vital matters such as equalization and health-care funding. Entering into them with a referendum still pending would be a fool’s game, and Quebecers should not expect other governments to play along.
Along with the debilitating turmoil that another referendum would visit on the province, Quebecers should ponder the short-term consequences of a majority Yes vote. The PQ’s program is notably mute on the specifics of what would happen in the aftermath of such a result, but some credible suggestions have been made during this campaign by Raymond Garneau, a former Quebec finance minister and member of Parliament, among other distinctions, during a stellar career in politics and business.
He suggests that in the wake of a vote to secede, the federal government would probably enlist support from the remaining Canadian provinces to tell Quebec to get on expeditiously with separating. Quebec could well be advised that within the 12 months following the vote, the federal government would stop collecting taxes in Quebec and concurrently stop all federal transfer payments to Quebec for such things as health and education, not to mention the billions in equalization that Quebec currently receives from the rest of the country.
During the same period, Quebecers would lose eligibility for federal Old Age Security, unemployment insurance and other payments under federal programs.
Federal funding for arts and culture would stop, as would support for Radio-Canada and English-language CBC operations in Quebec. Garneau suggests that Quebec would be liable to be given 18 months to create its own currency, and that Quebecers’ Canadian passports would be void after such a time.
All of this would have to be managed in an atmosphere of social and fiscal instability by a Quebec government preoccupied by language and cultural concerns and of dubious economic expertise, judging by the program the PQ has put forward this election campaign.
Sovereignists tend to dismiss such disquieting projections as fear mongering. But this time around they are the logical positions a federal government might assume if faced with a majority vote for Quebec separation.
The scenario is one that should be seriously considered even by people who plan to vote PQ out of sovereignist conviction. They seriously risk being sorely disappointed by what they wish for.